JONATHAN AND NORTHERN VOTERS.

President Goodluck Jonathan

There is something that the Northern Muslim Hausa-Fulani and their Governors have not come to terms with…….that having lost the support of the South-South and the Christian North, they are now in the minority and are no longer so important in political calculations in the country. True they called the shots in the past but times have changed. For instance, a President like Jonathan does not need the State Delegates votes of any of the Northern Muslim Hausa-Fulani States in order to win the PDP Presidential Party Primary in 2015 especially if he is contesting against a Northern Muslim Hausa-Fulani candidate or candidates.
In 2011, a total of 3603 delegates were accredited at the PDP Presidential Party Primary. In this regard, all a candidate needed to win the Primary was 1802 votes. In that convention Jonathan secured a total 1521 votes from only Southern States delegates; needing only an additional 281 to win the nomination.

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My point is that this additional 281 votes that he needed to make-up and win the nomination could easily have come, not from the Northern Muslim Hausa-Fulani States delegates votes but from none Northern Muslim Hausa-Fulani States delegates votes viz. Plateau, Benue, Taraba, Adamawa, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, plus none state ex-officio delegates. You can also add parts of Kaduna, Gombe, and Niger States to the list if you want. In fact, methinks it was this glaring position that forced the Northern Muslim Hausa-Fulani States delagtes and their respective Governors to vote for Jonathan in the 2011 PDP Presidential Primary election.
It was not really because they preferred Jonathan over their own – Alhaji Atiku Abubalar. It was because they saw that there was no way a Northern Muslim Hausa-Fulani would have won the primaries against Jonathan. The odds were very much against them and it is still very much against them today as we look towards the 2015 PDP Presidential Primary Election.
The same goes for the election proper. The total registered voters for all the core Northern Muslim Hausa-Fulani States (Niger, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, Borno, Gombe, Bauchi, and Yobe) as at 2011 stood at 29,575.854 (just about 40%) out of the country’s total voting population of 73,528.040. When you take into consideration that in their 40% there are still significant divisions in States like Kaduna, Niger and Gombe, etc.. you will begin to feel the real extent of the fact that the Northern Muslim Hausa-Fulani geo-political block are now a minority in the country’s political context. Unfortunately, this hard fact is yet to truly dawn on them and they are still arrogantly carrying on as “born-to-rule” majority who must dominate all others in Nigeria.

By: Bello Bello Isiaka